Mahmoud Mohamed Maher Afifi
Lecturer
Floods susceptibility for storage dam’s locations to mitigate flash flood hazards and rainfall harvesting using GIS spatial distribution model and the analytical hierarchy process
Journal of Flood Risk Management • 2025
Publication Information
Authors
Mahmoud M. Afify, Ismail Abd-Elaty, Amir S Ibrahim, Islam S Al Zayed, Ashraf Ahmed,and Fahmy S. Abdelhaleem
Keywords
Flash flood; Wadi Ked; GIS; multi-criteria decision-making; analytical hierarchy approach; dams.
Journal
Journal of Flood Risk Management
Publisher
Wiley
Volume
18
Issue
4
Pages
Not Available
publication.type
International
Paper Link
Open Link
Supplementary Materials
Mahmoud Mohamed Maher Afifi_Flood_Susceptibility_for_Storage_Dams_Locations_to.pdf
Abstract
Flooding is a natural calamity that causes widespread devastation, including severe infrastructure destruction, significant economic consequences, and social disturbances around the world, particularly in the Sinai region. Wadi Ked is one of Sinai's, Egypt, most vulnerable districts to flood hazards, and it is utilized to carry out this study. This study seeks to create a map of flood-prone areas in Wadi Ked through the combination of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques, utilizing an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methodology. To achieve the study's goal, flood-related factors such as elevation, slope, distance to roads, distance from streams, annual rainfall, drainage density, topographic wetness index, land use and land cover, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, soil type, and curvature were weighted and overlaid. The results show that 26.91% of the areas studied have a low sensitivity to flooding, whereas roughly 73.09% of the area is moderately to very highly vulnerable to flooding. The study proposed a dam with a height of 30 m, a width of 0.416 km, and a lake capacity of 31.74 million cubic meters (MCM), where surface runoff volumes from 50 and 100-year storms in sub-basins 1 to 5 are 23.07 MCM and 29.66 MCM, respectively. Model validation was performed by comparing susceptibility maps generated from literature-based and expert-based AHP weights, revealing a 98% spatial agreement and a Kappa coefficient of 0.995, confirming the model’s robustness. This study provides value for decision-makers and planners by using morphometric properties and flash flood risk maps to identify suitable locations for dams.
